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Industrial dynamics is the study of the means and processes through which industries change over time, through their own processes of evolution – as first analyzed by Joseph Schumpeter. It is the complementary study to that of an industry’s comparative statics, which still dominates economic analysis. Industrial dynamics, as studied by scholars such as Carlsson and Eliasson,〔Carlsson, B. 1997. Technological systems and industrial dynamics. Springer〕〔Carlsson, B. and G. Eliasson 2003. Industrial dynamics and endogenous growth, Industry and Innovation, 10 (4): 435-455.〕 reveal the basic underlying forces driving industry evolution. Some industries, particularly those with rapid product turnover or high levels of capital expenditure, reveal special dynamics moving through intrinsic upturns and downturns that are not necessarily related to the wider economic fluctuations. These are known as ‘cyclical industrial dynamics’. They have recently come under investigation in the specialized literature.〔Tan, H., & Mathews, J. A. In Press. Identification and analysis of industry cycles.Journal of Business Research. 〕〔Tan, H., & Mathews, J. A. In Press. Cyclical Industrial Dynamics: The case of the global semiconductor industry. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 〕 ==Prevalence of industry cycles== Almost all industries exhibit cyclicality to some extent. Below are some examples where industry cycles have been particularly examined. ''Commodities'' The research by John Sterman finds that the so-called commodity cycles arise in many commodity markets.〔Sterman, John D. 2000. Business Dynamics. Boston: McGraw-Hill.〕 For example, price and production cycles in markets of hog, cattle and copper span 4 years, 10–12 years and 8–10 years each in average respectively. Margret Slade estimates that cycles in prices of metals including aluminum, copper, iron, lead, silver, tin, and zinc are about 10–14 years in duration, which is twice as long as the investment periods.〔Slade, Margret E. 1982. Cycles in Natural-Resource Commodity Prices: An Analysis of the Frequency Domain. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 9:138-148.〕 The study by Thomas Stanback indicates a persistent cycle of approximately two years duration in the textile industry in the 1950s and 1960s.〔Stanback, Thomas M. 1958. The textile cycle: Characteristics and contributing factors. Southern Economic Journal 25 (2):174-188.〕 Alajoutsijärvi and colleagues report that the cycle in the German paper industry has shortened in duration since 1990, and is now about two or three years in length.〔Alajoutsijärvi, K., M. B. Klint, and H. Tikkanen. 2001. Customer Relationship Strategies and the Smoothing of Industry-Specific Business Cycles: The Case of the Global Fine Paper Industry. Industrial Marketing Management 30:487-497〕 ''Durable Goods'' Based on his observations of the explicit cyclical movement in the shipbuilding industry, Nobel Prize-winning economist Jan Tinbergen believes the so-called ‘durable goods cycle’ is a result of the lag of the upstream industries such as shipbuilding in response to the cycles in end users markets such as that in freight rates.〔Tinbergen, Jan, and J. J. Polak. 1950. The dynamics of business cycles : a study in economic fluctuations. London: Routledge & K. Paul.〕 He further suggests that the cycle length of the upstream industry is four times the lag, and is about 17 years in the shipbuilding industry.〔Tinbergen, J. 1981. Kondratiev cycles and so-called long waves: The early research. Futures 13 (4):258-263.〕 Besides the traditional industries, many new industries such as semiconductors, flat panel displays, computers and telecommunications also exhibit strong cyclicality.〔See for example Noam, E. M. 2006. Fundamental instability: Why telecom is becoming a cyclical and oligopolistic industry. Information Economics and Policy 18:272-284; 2005. Liu, W.-H. Determinants of the semiconductor industry cycles. Journal of Policy Modeling 27:853-866; Mathews, J. A. 2005. Strategy and the Crystal Cycle. California Management Review 47 (2):6-32; McClean, B. 2001. 2001 IC industry at the crossroads. Semiconductor International 24 (1):73-75.〕 ''Services'' In the service sector, for example, Choi and colleagues date the industry cycles of the US hotel industry and restaurant industry.〔Choi, J.-G. 1999. The Restaurant Industry: Business Cycles, Strategic Financial Practices, Economic Indicators, and Forecasting. Doctoral Dissertation, Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia; and Choi, J.-G., M. D. Olsen, F. A. Kwansa, and E. C.-Y. Tse. 1999. Forecasting industry turning points: the US hotel industry cycle model. Hospitality Management 18:159-170.〕 They establish the mean duration of the business cycle, measured with aggregate activities in absolute level, as about 7.3 years for the U.S. hotel industry; and for the U.S. restaurant industry, as about 8 years. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Cyclical industrial dynamics」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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